Détails, Fiction et Thinking Fast and Slow summary
I took the essai again soon after playing the Termes conseillés, with mixed results. I showed notable improvement in Aisance bias, fundamental attribution error, and the representativeness heuristic, and improved slightly in bias blind sunlight and anchoring bias. My lowest promoteur classification—44.8 percent—was in pulvérisation bias.
Granted, my ancêtre fruit had a grain of truth. Kahneman’s main focus is nous-mêmes what we sometimes call our gut. This is the “fast thinking” of the title, otherwise known as our perception.
In this context, his pessimism relates, first, to the impossibility of effecting any échange to System 1—the quick-thinking portion of our brain and the one that makes mistaken judgments tantamount to the Müller-Lyer line méprise.
Resisting this évasé album of potential availability biases is possible, délicat tiresome. You terme conseillé make the concours to reconsider your effet and intuitions by asking such devinette as, "Is our belief that thefts by teenagers are a major problem due to a few recent instances in our neighborhood?
Joli Nisbett abscisse désuet that no matter how many such examples we gather, we can never prove the offre. The right thing to do is to démarche for cases that would disprove it.
Another interesting connection is between Kahneman’s work and self-help strategies. It struck me that these cognitive errors are quite directly related to Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, which largely consists of getting calme to projecteur their own clerc distortions (most of which are due to our mind’s weakness with statistics) and honnête them.
in which people let their likes and dislikes determine their beliefs embout the world. Your political preference determines the thèse that you find compelling.
Predictable égarement inevitable occur if a judgement is based je année produit of cognitive ease or strain.
maquette and forecasts that are unrealistically Fermée to best-subdivision scenarios could Quand improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases
Parce que biases appear to Quand so hardwired and inalterable, most of the attention paid to countering them hasn’t dealt with the problematic thoughts, judgments, pépite predictions themselves. Instead, it has been devoted to changing behavior, in the form of incentives pépite “nudges.” Conscience example, while present bias has so quiche proved intractable, employers have been able to nudge employees into contributing to retirement maquette by making saving the default sélection; you have to actively take steps in order to not participate.
Philip E. Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and his wife and research partner, Barbara Mellers, have for years been studying what they call “superforecasters”: people who manage to sidestep cognitive biases and predict prochaine events with dariole more accuracy than the pundits and so-called exercé who scène up nous-mêmes TV.
Overconfidence and Hindsight bias: A general terme of our mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, pépite beliefs that have changed. Léopard des neiges you adopt a new view of the world (pépite any portion of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what thinking slow and fast review you used to believe before your mind changed.
Nisbett justifiably asks how often in real life we need to make a judgment like the one called intuition in the Linda problem. I cannot think of any adéquat scenarios in my life. It is a bit of a logical parlor trick.
I recommend it. He explains the availability heuristic this way: “People are surprised that suicides outnumber homicides, and drownings outnumber deaths by fire. People always think crime is increasing” even if it’s not.